In the heart of California, the city of Davis stands at a pivotal crossroads where the future of its schools is inextricably linked to the ongoing housing crisis and stringent land use policies, creating a complex challenge for the community. The Davis Joint Unified School District (DJUSD) is grappling with a projected enrollment decline of approximately 1,000 students over the next decade, a trend that could lead to school closures and fundamentally alter the fabric of the community by the 2028–29 school year. This isn’t merely a statistical concern; it reflects deeper systemic challenges, including an aging population, skyrocketing housing costs that push families out, and restrictive growth measures that limit new development. As young families find it increasingly difficult to afford homes in Davis, the classrooms grow emptier, casting a shadow over the sustainability of local education. The upcoming votes in 2026 on two proposed housing projects, Village Farms and Willowgrove, could serve as turning points, potentially determining whether the district can reverse this downward spiral or face even harsher realities. This article delves into the complex interplay between housing availability and school enrollment, examining the policies, community perspectives, and critical decisions that will shape Davis’ educational landscape in the years ahead.
Enrollment Decline: A Looming Threat to Schools
The enrollment crisis facing DJUSD is a pressing issue, with significant consequences expected to unfold by the 2028–29 school year if current trends persist. Superintendent Matt Best has emphasized that earlier enrollment forecasts are no longer accurate, largely due to delays in housing development that were expected to bring new families into the area. This mismatch between projections and reality has forced the district to rethink its strategies, preparing for the possibility of school closures and boundary realignments. School board President Joe DiNunzio has articulated a balanced approach, focusing on preparing for the worst while maintaining hope for better outcomes through community-driven solutions. Plans for public outreach in 2026 and early 2027 are underway to ensure transparency, but the uncertainty surrounding these potential changes weighs heavily on families and educators alike. The numbers paint a stark picture, and without an influx of students, the district’s hands may be tied, leading to tough decisions that no one wants to make.
Beyond the raw data, the emotional and social stakes of this decline cannot be overstated. Schools are far more than just places of learning; they are vital centers of community life, fostering connections and contributing to Davis’ identity as a family-friendly city. The prospect of closing up to three schools, depending on future housing outcomes, threatens to disrupt neighborhood cohesion and diminish the appeal that has long drawn residents to the area. This situation underscores a direct correlation between student numbers and housing availability, highlighting that without new families moving in, the very foundation of local education is at risk. The ripple effects could extend beyond the classroom, impacting local businesses and the overall vibrancy of Davis as a place to live and raise children.
Housing Challenges and Shifting Demographics
Davis is caught in a housing crunch that exacerbates the enrollment decline, driven by a combination of demographic shifts and limited supply. An aging population means fewer school-aged children, as many long-term residents remain in their homes while younger families are increasingly priced out of the market. Nearby cities like Woodland and West Sacramento have become more attractive alternatives, siphoning off potential students and further straining DJUSD’s numbers. This demographic reality isn’t merely a passing phase; it signals a structural challenge that could redefine the city’s future if left unaddressed. The shortage of affordable housing options for young families acts as a barrier, preventing the kind of population renewal needed to sustain school enrollment at current levels.
Compounding this issue is the city’s approach to meeting state housing requirements, known as the Regional Housing Needs Allocation (RHNA). For now, Davis has relied on infill development—building within existing city limits—to fulfill these mandates, avoiding the need for broader expansion. However, this strategy is nearing its limit as available sites for infill dwindle, creating a bottleneck for future growth. City leaders, including former Mayor Will Arnold and Councilmember Bapu Vaitla, have publicly acknowledged that depending solely on infill is unsustainable for upcoming RHNA cycles. This realization pushes the conversation toward inevitable questions of peripheral development, a path fraught with political and policy hurdles that could determine whether Davis can attract the families necessary to keep its schools thriving.
Measure J: Balancing Preservation and Progress
At the core of Davis’ housing debate lies Measure J, a policy enacted in 2000 that requires voter approval for any conversion of agricultural or open-space land to urban use. Originally designed to safeguard the city’s small-town character and protect valuable farmland, this measure has increasingly come under scrutiny as a significant obstacle to addressing the housing shortage. The California Department of Housing and Community Development (HCD) has explicitly identified Measure J as a constraint, pointing out that a majority of proposed rezones for development since its implementation have failed at the ballot box. This consistent rejection by voters has stalled projects that could potentially bring new homes—and thus new students—to the area, creating a bottleneck that frustrates city planners and school officials alike.
Critics, including organizations like Legal Services of Northern California, argue that Measure J introduces prohibitive costs, delays, and uncertainty into the development process, effectively throttling housing supply even when infill options are available. As the pivotal 2026 votes on proposed projects like Village Farms and Willowgrove draw near, the measure’s role as a gatekeeper to growth becomes ever more pronounced. The outcome of these votes could either open the door to much-needed housing or reinforce the barriers that keep families out, directly impacting DJUSD’s ability to stabilize enrollment. The tension between preserving Davis’ rural heritage and meeting modern housing demands encapsulates a broader struggle, one that will require careful navigation to avoid long-term consequences for the community.
Community Stakes and the Path Forward
The fate of Davis’ schools transcends mere policy discussions; it strikes at the heart of what defines the city as a desirable place to live. Vice President Hiram Jackson has underscored the importance of prioritizing family-friendly planning, urging city officials to consider the needs of younger residents in their vision for growth. Meanwhile, former Mayor Don Saylor has expressed concern over a perceived drift away from a historical commitment to youth and education in local decision-making. Without new housing to attract families, the essence of Davis as a vibrant, family-oriented community hangs in the balance. The potential closure of schools, should housing initiatives falter, risks deepening social divides and eroding the shared sense of purpose that has long united residents.
Looking back, the challenges facing Davis reflected a critical juncture where housing and education were inseparably linked. The decisions made during that period, particularly around the 2026 votes, proved to be defining moments. Moving forward, the city needed to foster stronger collaboration between DJUSD and municipal leaders to craft policies that welcomed growth without sacrificing identity. Exploring innovative zoning solutions or state partnerships to ease housing constraints emerged as viable steps. Additionally, engaging the community in meaningful dialogue about the trade-offs of preservation versus development was essential to build consensus. The path ahead demanded bold action and a shared commitment to ensuring that Davis remained a place where schools thrived as cornerstones of community life, guiding the city toward a sustainable and inclusive future.
